Demographic Doom Podcast
36. Japan vs. Italy: Why is the virus exploding in one but not the other?

36. Japan vs. Italy: Why is the virus exploding in one but not the other?

March 26, 2020

On March 26, 2020, the world was in the grips of "Lockdown Fever" when whole countries and regions were shutting down in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19. Transportation was restricted; nonessential businesses were closed, and workers were told to go home for an indeterminate period. Glenn Campbell regards these lockdowns as "national suicide", sabotaging the economies of the affected regions while saving few lives. In his words, lockdowns are "trying to kill a mouse with a sledgehammer." You may get the mouse eventually, but you destroy your own home in the process. There are better ways to control the disease, mainly by changing human hygiene practices and contact behavior. To illustrate why these methods work and lockdowns don't, Glenn the explores the vastly different outcomes of two countries: Japan and Italy. Japan, exposed to the virus first, has suffered only 45 deaths to date, while Italy, with half the population and exposed later, already has 7000. In Japan, few businesses have been closed. The subways remain packed with riders, and clubs are still open, while Italy is in full lockdown mode. What accounts for this radical difference in infection rates? If you understand that, you'll understand what really works in controlling the disease and why blanket lockdowns are such a tragic mistake. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_japanitaly [ep 36, 26 Mar 2020]

35. Comprehending the Crisis

35. Comprehending the Crisis

March 18, 2020

March 18, 2020 — The main crisis humanity is facing right now is not a viral epidemic. It is a massive worldwide economic collapse, similar in impact to the Great Depression and World War II in Europe. The virus pricked a bubble that was already overinflated and ready to pop. All sectors of the economy have accumulated huge, unsustainable debts, and the coming crisis will neutralize them, probably not gracefully. The crisis will also dissolve many of the assets people thought they had. Almost everyone should be afraid right now. In this episode, Glenn Campbell tries to view the crisis from the widest possible perspective. If aliens were approaching Earth right now, what would they see? — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_comprehend [ep 35, 19 Mar 2020]

34. Virus Lockdown Mania: Is It Making Things Worse?

34. Virus Lockdown Mania: Is It Making Things Worse?

March 17, 2020

March 17, 2020 — As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads around the world, schools, businesses and events are shutting down, crippling the economy. Could the effects of these shutdowns be worse than the coronavirus itself? A lockdown of healthy people is different from a quarantine of sick ones, which is sensible and economically manageable. Telling your entire workforce to go home is not manageable, and its medical benefits are dubious. France and Italy have essentially shut down their entire countries, supposedly for a fixed period, but when will it ever end? At the end of 2-3 weeks, the epidemic will still exist, probably worse than before, so when can you tell people to go back to work and school? The longer a lockdown goes on, the more devastating it is to the economy and to the ultimate ability of a society to function. Instead of locking everything down, Glenn Campbell believes everyone should go about their usual business. They should modify their behavior to avoid infection, but they must do it in sustainable ways that allow the economy to keep functioning. If people simply go into their bunkers for six months, there may be no economy left when they come out. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_lock [ep 34, 17 Mar 2020 revised]

33. Ironies of Herd Immunity

33. Ironies of Herd Immunity

March 15, 2020

When will the current COVID-19 epidemic end? The answer lies in the concept of "herd immunity." Since a virus can't live outside its hosts, it will expire when it doesn't have enough hosts to sustain it, which happens well before distribution reaches 100%. Current calculations suggest only a maximum of about 60% of the US population will get the disease. The rest are protected by the fact that not enough carriers will be available when too many people become immune. This means that one person does not need to catch the disease to share the immunity of others. Herd immunity has a number of social implications, including the perverse idea of deliberately infecting young people to protect their elders.— Also see DemographicDoom.com — Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_herd [ep 33, 15 Mar 2020]

32. Millennials vs. Baby Boomers: The Coronavirus Edition

32. Millennials vs. Baby Boomers: The Coronavirus Edition

March 11, 2020

COVID-19 disproportionately threatens the old while sparing the young, and this may spark a new conflict between the generations. Baby Boomers have often been accused of robbing future generations by monopolizing wealth and charging up the national debt. Now younger generations have a chance to get even. Because their risk from the virus is low, young people have little incentive to change their behavior. Many may ignore quarantines and recommended hygiene, which ultimately puts their elders at greater risk. There is no malice involved. Young people are simply obeying their own self-interest, just as the Boomers did. ***** UPDATE 3 MAY 2020: I was wrong! It isn't young people who are protesting the lockdowns but the same older voters who support Donald Trump. See video description for my confession. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_millboom [ep 32, 11 March 2020]

31. The Crash Begins

31. The Crash Begins

March 1, 2020

The week of February 24-28, 2020 saw the worst stock market drop since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Glenn Campbell congratulates himself on his accurate prediction of it in his episode two weeks earlier. This week, he says, marks the beginning of a massive economic collapse he has been predicting for over a year. Looking ahead, he sees only bad things happening as the coronavirus spreads around the world and economies react. While his crystal ball is foggy in the long term, he offers a new prediction for the medium term: Unemployment in the United States will double by the end of June, and things can only get worse from there. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_crash [ep 31, 1 Mar 2020]

30. Pandemic + Financial Collapse = Chaos

30. Pandemic + Financial Collapse = Chaos

February 23, 2020

As of February 23, 2020, the coronavirus had invaded all of China and was gaining a foothold in several other countries, including Italy, South Korea and Iran. Glenn Campbell tries to comprehend the vast financial impacts of the pandemic—and finds that he can't. His position is like someone from 1939 trying to look ahead to the coming World War and trying to predict how it will work out. The best he can do is describe some of the medical and economic factors that will make this a truly horrible event. As of the date of this recording, stock market investors are in denial, pushing indexes to new highs. This cannot last. Before the virus, the economy was already in an "Everything Bubble" and a worldwide pandemic is more than enough to pop it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_collapse [ep 30, 23 Feb 2020]

29. Introduction to Triagism: A Philosophy of Life Based on Medical Triage

29. Introduction to Triagism: A Philosophy of Life Based on Medical Triage

February 21, 2020

Glenn Campbell describes his own self-styled philosophy called "Triagism" based on medical triage as might be practiced in a big-city Emergency Room. Recorded on 21 February 2020 as coronavirus (Covid-19) spreads around the world, Triagism is highly relevant to the government response to this disease. If there are only 10 beds available in a hospital and 1000 sick patients show up outside its doors, how do the staff decide which patients to take in? In traditional triage, the aim is to save as many lives as possible by carefully selecting the patients served. Mildly sick patients may be declined because they are likely to live without intervention, while severely ill patients may also be refused because they are beyond help. Triage tends to favor the moderately ill patients who can most benefit from treatment. While intended for medical management, the same triage principles can be applied to all kinds of human decisions. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_triagism [ep 29. 21 Feb 2020]

28. Coronavirus Predictions

28. Coronavirus Predictions

February 10, 2020

By February 10, 2020, the coronavirus outbreak has spread across China despite draconian efforts by the Chinese government to contain it. As of now, the virus doesn't seem to have gained a foothold in overseas countries like the USA, but experts seem to concur that it will become endemic, affecting every part of the globe. At this pivotal point in history, Glenn Campbell summarizes what he understands about the virus and makes some predictions about the social and economic effects. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_corona [ep 28. 10 Feb 2020]

27. Coronavirus: Is This The Black Swan That Crashes the Economy?

27. Coronavirus: Is This The Black Swan That Crashes the Economy?

February 3, 2020

As a viral epidemic takes hold in China, Glenn Campbell predicts it will be the "black swan" that pushes the world economy into severe recession. Podcast recorded on Feb. 3, 2020, when only 17,000 cases were confirmed and 360 official deaths. The news will certainly change over the coming weeks, but no matter what happens, the economic costs will be devastating. The real damage is loss of confidence. In previous podcasts, Glenn talked about the worldwide debt crisis and the coming major recession. The economic collapse only needs a trigger, and the coronavirus may be it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_virus [ep 27. 3 Feb 2020]

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