Demographic Doom Podcast
Casualties of the Crisis: Real Estate and College Campuses

Casualties of the Crisis: Real Estate and College Campuses

May 25, 2020

In coming months, the world is due for a major collapse of real estate prices. The lockdowns prompted by Covid-19 have exposed the inherent weaknesses of most forms of "place". Offices, retail stores and expensive homes just don't have the same intrinsic value that they did five months ago, and a painful reckoning is at hand. With many employees and college students working successfully from home, it is becoming clear that knowledge work doesn't require a special location. The virus has given a huge boost to telecommuting, and once these wheels have been set in motion, they can't be turned back. The victims of the change are landlords providing office space and colleges forced to maintain expensive buildings that aren't being used, as well as all the workers who construct and maintain these facilities. Homeowners in major cities will also face losses as telecommuters flee to less expensive cities. Knowledge workers may have easier lives, but anyone who are already invested in real estate may face devastating losses. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_realestate [ep 44, 24 May 2020] ***** PODCAST IS ON HIATUS after this episode while I work on a book manuscript. See DemographicDoom.com

A History of our Dysfunction: 1945-2020

A History of our Dysfunction: 1945-2020

May 16, 2020

In a single episode, Glenn Campbell reviews the entire economic history of the United States from the end of World War II to the current economic collapse. Recorded on May 10, 2020, when stock markets continue to defy the crisis, rising in the face of bad news. Glenn identifies five processes over the past 75 years that have made an economic crisis inevitable: (1) The rise and fall of the Baby Boomers. (2) Our expanded longevity due to advances in safety and medicine. (3) The "inflation of tastes" which has turn our economy into a frivolous one. (4) The explosion of debt in all sectors of the economy that cannot possibly be paid back, (5) Desperate attempts by the Federal Reserve to rectify to previous four processes through destructive monetary policy. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_practices [ep 43, 10 May 2020]

Best Practices Medicine vs. Triage Medicine

Best Practices Medicine vs. Triage Medicine

April 29, 2020

Glenn Campbell discusses a basic dilemma of modern medicine: whether you should spare no expense to save one patient ("best practices") or ration medical resources in such as to save as many patients as possible ("triage medicine"). While he has benefited from best practices as a high-expense cancer patient, he has misgivings about its benefits to society at large. By giving perfect care to just a few patients, a society may end up killing more of its citizens in the long run. Replaying a 6-minute portion of Episode 37, Glenn expands on this dilemma and how it will play out in the future. Mankind may have already achieved "peak medicine" where advances in medical technology do not improve the longevity of the general population. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments, corrections & links to other resources: j.mp/dd_practices [ep 42, 29 April 2020]

Casualty of the Crisis: Things You Don’t Need

Casualty of the Crisis: Things You Don’t Need

April 26, 2020

On April 26, 2020, as most communities remain in lockdown for COVID-19, Glenn Campbell looks back on a video he released a year earlier called, "The Vanity Economy: The First Casualty in the Next Recession". This video was prescient and is rebroadcast here in full. Although Glenn knew nothing of any pandemic back then, he knew that a crash was coming and that it would start with a collapse in the market for nonessential products and services. Everyone needs food and medical care, but they can live without spa treatments, sports equipment, home renovation, new cars and countless other ego-motivated items. In a crash, those are the first things people eliminate from their budgets. Purging things you don't need may seem good for the soul, but it is devastating for a modern economy, which has come to depend on this discretionary market. This episode replays the original 10-minute video (visible on the YouTube version) followed by a commentary bringing it up to date. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_dontneed [ep 41, 26 April 2020]

The Tragedy of the Commons: The Sin That Got Us Here

The Tragedy of the Commons: The Sin That Got Us Here

April 18, 2020

April 18, 2020 — The Tragedy of the Commons is an economic dilemma first described in 1822. If a village uses a common plot of land to graze its animals, the incentive of each villager is to graze as many animals there as possible, but if everyone in the village does this, the land is denuded and all the animals starve. The only way to preserve the Commons is some form of government regulation limiting the grazing rights of each villager. This analogy applies to all manner of shared resources, like lakes and rivers, as well as financial instruments and the money supply. Governments have been successful in managing real-time resources like grasslands but have been less successful regulating secondary markets involving future resources. When villagers start buying and selling their future grazing rights, it can lead to bubbles where more rights are sold than the future Commons can actually support. That's the condition of our whole economy right now. More debts and promises are being traded than the real economy can ever fulfill. In this episode, Glenn Campbell looks at the new Tragedy of the Commons arising from too much debt and undisciplined monetary policy. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_commons [ep 40, 18 April 2020]

Coming Soon: Collapse of Federal Debt and the U.S. Dollar

Coming Soon: Collapse of Federal Debt and the U.S. Dollar

April 10, 2020

April 9, 2020: As COVID-19 and "Lockdown Fever" grip the United States, virtually every response the Federal government can offer involves spending tons of money. They're sending stimulus checks to taxpayers and subsidizing businesses seen as essential, like banks and airlines. As usual, the government is spending money it doesn't have and never will. It couldn't even live within its means in the good times, and now, in the bad times, Federal debt is set to explode. In this episode, Glenn Campbell explores what will happen when Federal debt reaches its saturation point. Right now, desperate investors are eager to buy any bond the government issues, because it is seen as the least-worst place to put their money, but an insatiable market can't go on forever. Eventually, the Federal reserve must step in, buying bonds from the market and issuing new currency. This flood of new money will eventually result in massive inflation, even if it isn't evident today. Glenn predicts that by the end of 2020, inflation will resemble that of the 1970s, and hyperinflation could be next. In clear and simple terms, he explains how money printing works and why it can't be stopped. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_usdebt [ep 39, 9 April 2020] 

A Sorry Time for Humanity: How Lockdowns Are Digging Our Graves

A Sorry Time for Humanity: How Lockdowns Are Digging Our Graves

April 8, 2020

April 8, 2020: As government-mandated lockdowns of "nonessential" workers enter their umpteenth day, Glenn Campbell explains why they are such a bad idea. Lockdowns are blind and indiscriminate, and their economic damage is irreparable. The cure for COVID-19 is strategically addressing the major vectors that convey the disease, like shaking hands and touching door handles. Lockdowns, however, are trying to eliminate every possible risk, no matter how unlikely, and it will be politically difficult to roll them back. That's not to say they won't be effective. Glenn predicts that the epidemic will peak soon, as most vectors of transmission are addressed. The issue, then, will be the long-term economic damage of the lockdowns themselves. This is a case where the cure may be far worse than the disease. — Website: DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_sorry [ep 38, 8 April 2020]

 
 
How I’m Spending the Apocalypse: In a Hospital Bed in Boston

How I’m Spending the Apocalypse: In a Hospital Bed in Boston

April 6, 2020

On April 5, 2020, as states and countries become deeply entrenched in open-ended lockdowns due to COVID-19, Glenn Campbell finds himself in an unexpected place: a cancer ward in Boston. After 13 days at Beth Israel Hospital, he is beginning treatment for a relapse of his lymphoma, with a good chance of recovery in about 4 months. In this personal episode, light on demography, Glenn describes his treatment plan and cancer history. He also provides some insight into how a big-city hospital is dealing with COVID-19. Is it pandemonium in the wards. Are the staff stressed beyond the breaking point? As far as Glenn can tell, the answer is no. The hospital continues to function pretty much as it normally has. The virus requires many change in procedure, but there is one compensation for the staff: No more annoying visitors. Glenn can be seen recording this podcast in the YouTube version, direct from his hospital bed. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_hospital [ep 37, 6 April 2020]

Japan vs. Italy: Why is the virus exploding in one but not the other?

Japan vs. Italy: Why is the virus exploding in one but not the other?

March 26, 2020

On March 26, 2020, the world was in the grips of "Lockdown Fever" when whole countries and regions were shutting down in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19. Transportation was restricted; nonessential businesses were closed, and workers were told to go home for an indeterminate period. Glenn Campbell regards these lockdowns as "national suicide", sabotaging the economies of the affected regions while saving few lives. In his words, lockdowns are "trying to kill a mouse with a sledgehammer." You may get the mouse eventually, but you destroy your own home in the process. There are better ways to control the disease, mainly by changing human hygiene practices and contact behavior. To illustrate why these methods work and lockdowns don't, Glenn the explores the vastly different outcomes of two countries: Japan and Italy. Japan, exposed to the virus first, has suffered only 45 deaths to date, while Italy, with half the population and exposed later, already has 7000. In Japan, few businesses have been closed. The subways remain packed with riders, and clubs are still open, while Italy is in full lockdown mode. What accounts for this radical difference in infection rates? If you understand that, you'll understand what really works in controlling the disease and why blanket lockdowns are such a tragic mistake. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See the video version of this episode for notes, comments & corrections: j.mp/dd_japanitaly [ep 36, 26 Mar 2020]

Comprehending the Crisis

Comprehending the Crisis

March 18, 2020

March 18, 2020 — The main crisis humanity is facing right now is not a viral epidemic. It is a massive worldwide economic collapse, similar in impact to the Great Depression and World War II in Europe. The virus pricked a bubble that was already overinflated and ready to pop. All sectors of the economy have accumulated huge, unsustainable debts, and the coming crisis will neutralize them, probably not gracefully. The crisis will also dissolve many of the assets people thought they had. Almost everyone should be afraid right now. In this episode, Glenn Campbell tries to view the crisis from the widest possible perspective. If aliens were approaching Earth right now, what would they see? — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version of this episode at j.mp/dd_comprehend [ep 35, 19 Mar 2020]