Demographic philosopher Glenn Campbell announces the release of the first draft of his manifesto, "The Modular Family: Redesigning How Children Are Raised". This document is a blueprint for a new family structure intended to reduce the cost and improve the quality of childrearing. Instead of couple of children raised by 1 or 2 adults, Glenn proposes up to 18 children raised by dozens of adults.
Eugenics, or the science of human breeding, has been used to justify some of the worst atrocities of the 20th Century, but it has been with us since the beginning of time. Whenever a couple has a baby, that are engaged in a eugenics experiment. Demographic philosopher Glenn Campbell reviews what eugenics can and cannot do and what the earliest proponents got wrong. The best aim of eugenics is not to create a master race but to assure diversity.
Demographic philosopher Glenn Campbell claims no formal credentials in demographics or any of the other topics he discusses, but he has had some life experience. In a simplified life story, he describes highlights of his past as might relate to the Demographic Doom project. He is best known as a televised expert on Area 51 with a lesser-known stint as a Family Court observer. A world traveller with 87 countries in his passport, he has seen extreme poverty, extreme wealth and countries emptying out.
Almost any article on a pressing national crisis ends with some expert saying, "We must do something." By "we" they mean the national government. The fact is, most governments haven't solved problems for years. They only try to put out fires that they or their voters have set. In USA, the fire is Trump; in UK, it is Brexit. Most national problem-solving has ended, and Glenn Campbell argues that it won't be back. The only "we" that can still be effective is local, not national.
Every historian has their own theory about why the Western Roman Empire collapsed. Was it their hedonism, invading barbarians or incompetent rulers? Glenn Campbell offers his own view based on macroeconomics and the theories of anthropologist Joseph Tainter. At its base, the Roman Empire ran on grain, which could be stored and taxed. Collapse became inevitable when the cost of maintaining the empire exceeded the grain collected.
In most countries, workforce numbers are leveling off or falling, leading to potentially devastating economic effects. Is it possible that technology will save us, either by improving birth rates or reducing the economic damage? For example, can robots and automation replace the missing workers? Glenn Campbell says the answer is no. Robots can do some of the work previously done by humans, but that won't pay taxes or power the economy.
Glenn Campbell recalls his recent visit to Bulgaria, the world's fastest shrinking country. Since the fall of Communism, Bulgaria's population has dropped by 1/5th, from 9 million to 7 million. The loss is felt mainly in the countryside, where there are many abandonned buildings to explore. Urban areas like the capital Sofia continue to remain vibrant, due to a phenomenon Glenn calls "the Grand Hotel Syndrome": When a large hotel loses guests, management closes off wings and floors.
Glenn Campbell predicts that the next worldwide recession will be the biggest any of us has experienced, due to both debt and demography. Worldwide debt is the highest it has ever been—far larger than can possibly be paid off. Simultaneously, population growth and GDP are slowing in most countries. Citizens are aging, at greater cost to the government, while the number of new workers is dwindling. This can only result in a deep and lasting crash causing widespread disruption.
Ultra-Orthodox jews, rejecting modern values, are exploding in numbers and threatening to turn the country into a theocracy. The fertility for women in this sect is 6.2 babies per woman, compared to roughly 3 for the rest of the country. This birth rate is equivalent to a deeply impoverished country like Nigeria, but with virtually no child mortality. Recalling his own visits to Israel, Glenn Campbell describes the Haradim and why they pose a threat to the long-term survival of Israel.
Glenn Campbell addresses a dubious "solution" to the world's population problems. If some countries have too many babies and others don't have enough, why can't we transport the extra babies from one to the other? (Recorded 23 Sept 2019.)